The two accounts end up equal
$552,596
$7,500 a year for 30 years at 7%, after tax
- Traditional, after tax
- $552,596
- Roth, after tax
- $552,596
- Taxable brokerage
- $415,999
- Break-even retirement rate
- 22%
The three accounts side by side
| Measure | Traditional | Roth | Taxable brokerage |
|---|
| Money committed | $225,000 | $175,500 | $175,500 |
| Balance at the end | $708,456 | $552,596 | $458,440 |
| Tax paid in total | $155,860 | $49,500 | $91,941 |
| After-tax value | $552,596 | $552,596 | $415,999 |
| Kept per $1 of pre-tax pay | 73.68x | 73.68x | 55.47x |
The taxable account pays tax on dividends and realised gains every year, which shrinks the amount left to compound, and then pays capital gains tax on the remaining gain at the end.
Who wins at other retirement tax rates
| Rate in retirement | Traditional after tax | Roth after tax | Difference | Winner |
|---|
| 10% | $637,610 | $552,596 | +$85,015 | Traditional |
| 12% | $623,441 | $552,596 | +$70,846 | Traditional |
| 22% | $552,596 | $552,596 | +$0 | Either |
| 24% | $538,426 | $552,596 | −$14,169 | Roth |
| 32% | $481,750 | $552,596 | −$70,846 | Roth |
| 37% | $446,327 | $552,596 | −$106,268 | Roth |
The break-even sits at your rate today, 22%: a lower rate in retirement favours the deduction, a higher one favours paying the tax now.
The 2026 limits that apply
| Account | 2026 limit | Note |
|---|
| IRA | $7,500 | Plus $1,100 from age 50 |
| 401(k), 403(b), 457 | $24,500 | Plus $8,000 from 50, or $11,250 at 60 to 63 |
| SIMPLE IRA | $17,000 | $4,000 catch-up from 50 |
| Roth IRA income phase-out | $153,000 – $168,000 | Single and head of household |
| Roth IRA phase-out, joint | $242,000 – $252,000 | Married filing jointly |
Figures for tax year 2026 from IRS Notice 2025-67. The Roth IRA limit is shared with the traditional IRA: the total across both cannot exceed the annual IRA limit.
With the same rate now and in retirement the two accounts are worth exactly the same, which is not an accident: a deduction is worth the rate today and the withdrawal is taxed at the rate then. A Roth IRA has no lifetime required minimum distributions, while a traditional account must start distributions in your 70s, and Roth balances can be passed to heirs without income tax. Having both kinds of account gives you a choice about which pot to draw from in any given year.